POLITICAL NOTE No. 3, 2024 - March 12, 2024

SWEDEN FINALLY IN NATO

Now Sweden finally joined NATO. After a year of waiting, the last NATO country, Hungary, decided to say YES to Swedish membership. The alliance has never been stronger, as US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said the other day.

NATO now includes a total of 32 member states, including virtually all countries around the Baltic Sea. And Sweden's role in the alliance will be very important. Partly, with support from the other NATO countries, it can secure the entire Baltic Sea area, not least also from the large, centrally located island, Gotland. In part, the country, with its total of 9,300 km of coastline towards the Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in particular, can play a central role for the security of all of Northern Europe. And partly, Gothenburg and its large port will be a hub for NATO reinforcements both in peacetime and in wartime.

In the near future, Sweden will also actively participate in NATO's multinational brigade, located in Latvia.

Sweden has a very strong defense that costs approx. 2% of the country's gross domestic product. It has 24,000 active soldiers and 11,400 in reserve. And not least the Swedish air force is very strong, with some of the world's best fighter planes and missiles available.

Attached is a fact sheet about SWEDEN.

 

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN PORTUGAL

On Sunday 10 March, Portugal held elections for its 230-seat parliament. It was held early because the former socialist majority government fell after a corruption scandal.

The election has given the centre-right party Democratic Alliance a narrow victory over the socialists. They each received approx. 29% of the vote. The third party, Chega, is a populist right-wing party that gained approx. 18% of the vote.

The leader of the winning party, Luis Montenegro, has said that under no circumstances will he cooperate with Chega. Therefore, it is likely that he will form a minority government.

The turnout was very high this time - around 66%.

Europe has not been an issue in the election. It has mainly been about the economic conditions in the country. While the previous socialist government ensured that the country had a balance of payments surplus, there is still great poverty, not least in a southern part of the country. And that has strengthened Chega.

ITALY

Much attention has been paid to how Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government, rooted in Italy's fascist past, would govern the country. How would she carry out her rather rabid plans once she was in government - and even with the other very populist right-wing parties, including especially Matteo Salvini's party, the Lega

In her European policy, she always follows a very positive line, including active and unconditional support for Ukraine. She is also very positive towards NATO and Atlantic cooperation.

But it is on domestic politics in Italy that she particularly asserts herself and her right-wing positions. You see it in cultural policy, in education, in health policy, and in the question of more independent regions - an initiative that will particularly benefit the rich north. She also backed the farmers' protests recently, actually blaming the EU's Common Agricultural Policy.

Some indications are that Meloni herself will stand for the European Parliament elections in June. Not so much to get elected (she probably does), but to show her political strength in relation to the other right-wing parties.

She seems to run her politics according to the slogan: Show positive cooperation externally - then I will probably have peace of mind to drive Italy inwards as I wish. An important stumbling block in this game is that she is fully aware that the financial support from the EU is crucial for the country. Therefore, nothing must be done that could jeopardize it.

NETHERLANDS - UNCERTAIN NEGOTIATIONS

Government negotiations in the Netherlands continue. That in itself is not that surprising. It almost always takes a long time to create a new government in the country, i.a. because there are so many political parties. The right-wing populist and anti-Muslim Geert Wilders, who was the big winner of the election on 22 November, wants a right-wing government with four parties on the right and in the centre. The only problem is that these parties will not. One of them wants to get a government that is not directly bound by a majority in parliament (a so-called "extra-parliamentary solution"). Neither do the others.

 

Therefore, they are currently looking at the possibility of a minority government (very unusual in the Netherlands). It also does not have obvious support among the parties.

 

This could open the way for a social-democratic-green government under the former vice-president of the EU Commission, Frans Timmermans, supported by other centre and left-wing parties.

 

Of course, a new election could also come into question. But most of the parties do not particularly have an appetite for that, as the right-wing populist Geert Wilders immediately stands for even more progress.

 

UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN EUROPE

If you look at the coming months, there are quite a few elections on the agenda. Here is the list:

15.-17. March: Russia: "Presidential election" ( a very manipulated “vote”)

March 23:        Slovakia: Parliamentary elections

April 11:          Northern Ireland: Elections for the Northern Ireland Assembly

May 8:             North Macedonia: Parliamentary elections

May 12:           Lithuania: Presidential election

June 1:            Iceland: Presidential election

6-9 June:        All 27 EU countries: Elections to the European Parliament

June 9:            Belgium: Parliamentary elections

June 30:          Croatia: Parliamentary elections

Sept. 1:           Germany: State elections in Saxony and Thuringia

Sept. 20:         Germany: State elections in Brandenburg

30 Sept.:        Austria: Parliamentary elections