POLITICAL NOTE No. 2, 2024 - February 18, 2024

 RUSSIA - AFTER NAVALNY.

Yulia Navalnaja

The leading Russian opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, 47, has died. Or has been made dead. As you know, the authorities have tried this before. And they won't hand over his body to the family yet. These are not good signs - especially not for a regime of Putin's kind! And the authorities' very harsh treatment of people who just want to lay flowers in Navalny's honor is also a sign of their great nervousness. But as Navalny said on several occasions: If they decide to kill me, then it is a sign that we are strong. And never give up!!

 

The question is: What happens now? The best and most natural thing would be for the Russian population to take to the streets in their tens of thousands to protest. And not just in one place - but in many, many places. Preferably supported by police officers, soldiers, etc. Then even Putin could probably understand that it is completely crazy.

But unfortunately that probably won't happen. Not right away, anyway. On the other hand, I think that Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, may very well come to play a central role for the opposition. Like her husband, she is 47 years old - a trained economist - and has so far already been strongly promoted in the opposition. The other day she spoke at the European Security Conference in Munich - the day after her husband's death. The authorities are guaranteed to go after her too. Try to "make her" fall out of a window, give her poison, imprison her, etc. She definitely takes that into account.

I would suggest that you follow the three well-known Russian media, which are now published outside Russia (in Riga and in Yerevan). They can paint a realistic picture of the situation in Russia - and do so every single day. They are all also published in an English version:

Meduza - Meduza — Meduza — The Real Russia. Today.

Moscow Times - The Moscow Times

Novaya Gazeta - Europe:  Novaya Gazeta Europe

 

FINLAND - VERY PRO-EUROPEAN AND PRO-NATO PRESIDENT.

Last week the Finns elected their new president for the next six years. His name is Alexander Stubb, called Alex Stubb. He is 55 years old and is a former Minister of State and Finance. He belongs to the non-socialist Samlingsparty - just like his predecessor Sauli Niinestö. He has also worked for Jacques Delors in the European Commission. I know him personally from the time when we worked together.

The Finnish president has great powers regarding foreign and security policy. And he is the supreme commander of the strong Finnish defense. He takes office on 1 March.

 

In the ongoing conflict surrounding Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine, Stubb is very clear: No agreements with Russia as long as the war lasts. The country has already closed all border crossings on the shared 1,300 km border because Russia used it to send Middle Eastern refugees into Finland.

 

HUNGARY - ORBÁN'S GREAT DIFFICULTIES.

Europe's trouble-maker, Hungary, had to bend its neck at the latest EU summit and accept the EU's continued major support for Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had otherwise said in advance that this could not be the case. A "friendly" conversation with the most important EU leaders just before the summit made him change his mind! Immediately afterwards, he sent out a press release in Hungary stating that he had in fact won in that "no Hungarian money goes to Ukraine". There was probably no one in the EU, who understood that. But it was also not aimed at anyone other than his own followers in Hungary :-(

 

And he had barely returned home to Budapest before the biggest crisis of his long reign broke out in the open. The country's president, Katalin Novák, "had come to" pardon a prisoner who had been guilty of child abuse. She is a close friend and ally of Orbán. And this action goes directly against the values ​​the party and government say they are fighting for. The president had to step down, and so did the minister of justice, Judit Varga. She is also very close to Orbán. And out on the streets, the biggest demonstrations in living memory broke out all over Hungary. With demands for the resignation of the government.

The Orbán government has such a large majority in parliament that it probably won't happen. But the upcoming local elections in Hungary and the European Parliament elections - both at the beginning of June - can easily become a nightmare for Orbán and his many supporters.

 

And what about Sweden's entry into NATO? Here, Hungary is the only one of the 32 NATO members that has not yet said yes. Orbán has promised NATO's general secretary, Jan Stoltenberg, that it will happen at the start of the parliament's spring session. It starts on Monday 26 February. Let's see. But it won't be easy being Hungary if their approval is further delayed. Especially in today's very difficult situation with the Russian attack on Ukraine.

 

NETHERLANDS - GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATIONS IN DIFFICULTIES.

The Dutch election on November 22 gave a victory to the far-right politician Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party. With their demands for anti-Islam measures, denial of the climate problem, etc. Wilders has tried to gather a majority for a government. But last week, a large center party defected. Therefore, it is unknown what will happen now. Maybe new elections? And here Wilders stands to get even more votes. More in my next Political Notes.

 

NJT - 18 02 2024